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In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC returned to power for a third straight term, winning 220 seats, with Mamata Banerjee sworn in again as Chief Minister.
West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee.
The ruling All India Trinamool Congress is on track for a fourth consecutive term in West Bengal, according to the latest Vote Tracker opinion poll conducted by VoteVibe and released exclusively on CNN-News18.
The pre-election survey projects the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC to secure between 184 and 194 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly, well above the majority mark.
The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party is estimated to win 98-108 seats, while smaller and regional parties are expected to have a limited presence.
Mamata Factor
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee remains the central pillar of the TMC’s electoral strength. Nearly half of the respondents (48.5%) named her as their preferred Chief Minister, far ahead of BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, who received 33.4% support.
Vote Share
The survey places the TMC ahead in vote share as well, with 41.9% of respondents indicating support for the ruling party, compared with 34.9% backing the BJP.
Perception indicators also favour the incumbent, with 36.5% of respondents saying they are inclined to vote again for sitting TMC MLAs.
Mixed Verdict On Governance
Views on the state government’s performance are divided. Around 43.3% of respondents rated the government’s work as “good” or “very good,” while over a third expressed dissatisfaction, with 20.6% calling it “very poor” and 18.3% “poor.”
Satisfaction levels vary across social groups. Muslim respondents emerged as the most positive, with 44.2% rating governance as “very good.”
In contrast, upper-caste Hindu voters and Scheduled Tribes were the most critical, with 26.6% in both groups rating the government’s performance as “very poor.”
Across age groups and regions, dissatisfaction levels remained broadly consistent.
Key Voter Concerns
Unemployment stands out as the dominant election issue, cited by 37.2% of respondents across most demographic segments.
Law and order, including women’s safety, ranked second at 15.9%, reflecting the lingering impact of the RG Kar Medical College incident. Price rise (10.5%) and corruption (10.3%) followed closely.
Notably, Muslim respondents were less likely to flag unemployment compared to other groups, but showed the highest concern over SIR-related issues.
BJP’s Perceived Challenges
The poll highlights internal discord as the BJP’s biggest weakness in the state, with 19.9% of respondents pointing to infighting and factionalism.
A perceived lack of a charismatic state leader (17.2%) and the view that the party does not understand Bengal’s culture (12.5%) also weighed against it. Organisational weaknesses and messaging gaps were cited as additional hurdles.
A significant 22.5% of respondents said they were unsure about the BJP’s shortcomings, suggesting either limited engagement with the party’s internal dynamics or reluctance to criticise it openly.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC returned to power for a third straight term, winning 220 seats, with Mamata Banerjee sworn in again as Chief Minister.
While opinion polls offer only a snapshot, the latest findings suggest the TMC enters the 2026 race with a clear advantage.
West Bengal, India, India
March 23, 2026, 7:44 PM IST
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