New Delhi47 minutes agoAuthor: Krishna Mohan Tiwari
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The record fall in gold prices just before the festive season has increased the enthusiasm of the market manifold. 24 carat gold, which was Rs 74,064 per 10 grams on July 18, has fallen by 8% to Rs 68,131. Jewellery gold (22 carat) is at Rs 64 thousand. Due to this, two big changes are visible in the market. First, shopping has started before the wedding season coming in November-December.
Secondly, there are 8 big festivals from August to December. There are 16 auspicious dates for marriage in November-December. According to Ujjain’s Pandit Sudhir, the important Pushya nakshatras for shopping are 4 August, 31 August, 27 September and 25 October.
The special thing is that this year there were no auspicious dates for marriage in May-June, due to which a large number of marriages have been postponed to November-December. In such a situation, the records of gold sales may be broken this time. According to the World Gold Council, the demand for jewellery, gold bars and coins will increase till December. 50 tonnes of additional demand may arise.
16 auspicious dates for marriage in November and December
Marriage Muhurta dates in November: 13, 16, 17, 18, 22, 23, 25, 26, 28, 29
Marriage Muhurat dates in December : : 4, 5, 9, 10, 14, 15
The era of rising gold prices may return, the number of people investing in it will increase rapidly
There was a need to reduce the high custom duty on gold in the country for many years. This was causing loss to the government itself, because gold was coming in through smuggling and other routes. Now there is a difference of 5% between the price outside and the price in the country. In such a situation, no one will buy from outside. People will buy gold in the country itself. Due to these two reasons, gold imports can increase by 30 to 40% this year and jewelry purchases can increase by 10 to 15%.
However, it is very difficult to predict whether the price of gold will go down or up in the coming time. After the reduction in import duty, the price has been adjusted. From here, gold can go down only a little. The price of gold is determined by international factors, dollar, rupee, Fed interest rates. But I think that the price of gold can increase again in the coming 20-30 days.
The Fed Reserve may cut interest rates
There are reports that the Fed Reserve may cut interest rates in the coming days. Till now the trend has been that interest rate cuts increase investment in gold and gold prices rise due to increased demand. If we look at the record of the past years, gold has given better returns. In such a situation, due to the fall in prices, the money going into investment instruments like stock market, mutual funds will now also come towards gold.
Gold expenditure in the Rs 10 lakh crore wedding industry is 40%
Bullion traders have started big preparations in view of the latest trends. According to American brokerage firm Jefferies, India’s wedding industry is worth Rs 10 lakh crore. 80 lakh to 1 crore weddings take place every year. The average expenditure on a wedding is Rs 12 lakh. 40% of this is spent on jewellery.
30 thousand tons of gold is in Indian homes, this is 11% of the world’s reserves
- There are 30 thousand tons of gold in Indian homes. This is 11% of the world’s gold. It is more than the reserves of America, Germany and Switzerland.
- The country’s jewelers have a stock of 400 tonnes, some of which has been purchased at a high price. With the increase in demand, we will soon recover from this loss.
- After the reduction of custom duty, the gold rate fell by 5% and the value of Indian gold decreased by Rs 10 lakh crore to Rs 218 lakh crore.
Expert: Rajesh Mehta, Executive Chairman, Rajesh Exports Limited
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