Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party Likud has got 27 seats in the 2026 elections. This is his party’s weakest performance in the last 8 elections. Earlier in 2009, Likud had got 27 seats. There are a total of 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Netanyahu’s alliance has got 53 seats. Support of 61 MPs is required to form the government. His party is 34 seats short of majority, but there are chances of his return to power. The reason for this is the differences among the opposition parties and the possibilities of gathering the necessary support to form the government. Netanyahu has three ways to form a government. First way: Support of MPs from opposition parties. Netanyahu may try to bring with him some parties or MPs included in the opposition camp. The opposition has a total of 48 seats. If some of his allies agree to support Netanyahu, it may be possible for him to achieve the figure of 61 seats. Challenge- The biggest challenge in this path is the opposition from the opposition leaders. He had promised to remove Netanyahu from power in the elections. In such a situation, it would be politically difficult for him to go with Netanyahu. Second path: National unity government Netanyahu may try to form a national unity government with opposition leader Gadi Eiseenkot and his allies. Parties with different ideologies can be included in such a government. Challenge- Some of Netanyahu’s allies have also discussed this option. This may give him a chance to remain on the post of Prime Minister. However, Eiseenkot has opposed Netanyahu’s leadership. Therefore, it will not be easy to reach agreement on this proposal. Third option: Minority government Netanyahu may also try to form a minority government. Such a government does not have 61 MPs in its coalition, but it still needs the support or, in some cases, opposition from other parties in Parliament. Challenge- The minority government has to garner support on budget, trust vote and other important decisions. Therefore, even if such a government is formed, it may be challenging to run it for a long time. Opposition has 48 seats, 13 more are needed for majority. The opposition camp led by former army chief Gadi Aizencott has got 48 seats. It needs the support of 13 more MPs to form the government. The main goal of the opposition has been to remove Netanyahu from power, but it also faces the challenge of keeping the coalition united. There are differences among his allies over forming a government with Arab parties. Eisencott called for the creation of a government that was Jewish and supported mandatory military service for all citizens. This stance may make it difficult to reach compromise with Arab parties and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. This situation creates an opportunity for Netanyahu. If the opposition is unable to build consensus among its allies, Netanyahu may get a chance to gather the support needed to form a government. Why are 19 seats of Arab parties important? Israel’s Arab parties are expected to get a total of 19 seats in the elections. Of these, Joint List has got 11 seats and United Arab List i.e. Raam has got 8 seats. The support of these parties can help the opposition reach majority. If all 7 seats of Raam are added to the 48 seats of the opposition, then the number will be 55. Even then 6 more seats will be required for majority. If we get the support of both Joint List and Raam, then the number of opposition camp can reach 67. But this will be possible only when both Arab parties are ready to support and other opposition allies also agree to this arrangement. Arab parties have expressed willingness to work with other parties to remove Netanyahu from power. But some opposition allies remain opposed to a coalition with Arab parties. Therefore, getting their support is not just a matter of seat mathematics but also a matter of political consensus. Netanyahu will have to step down or he will remain acting Prime Minister. If no camp gets majority in the elections, it does not mean that Netanyahu will have to step down from the post of Prime Minister immediately. He can serve as caretaker Prime Minister until the new government is formed. Israeli President Isaac Herzog will hold talks with political parties after the elections. After this, he will give the first chance to form the government to the leader who has the best chances of gathering majority. The leader initially gets 28 days to form the government. If needed, the President can give additional time of 14 days. That means a total of 42 days can be given to try to form the government. During this, talks take place between the parties regarding alliance, ministerial posts and policies. If any leader fails to garner majority, there may be a need for re-election. Why the election was important for Netanyahu Netanyahu has long based his politics on the promise of strong leadership and national security. But after the attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, serious questions were raised on Israel’s security system. After this, there was a long war in Gaza and the war with Iran also increased regional tension. The opposition targeted Netanyahu’s leadership and security policies in the election. At the same time, the controversy over army recruitment and attempts to change the powers of the judiciary have also been big issues in Israeli politics. How much impact these issues had on the election results cannot be determined from seat figures alone. But Likud has lost 5 seats in 2022 and Netanyahu’s coalition is far from a majority. Will Netanyahu be able to become Prime Minister again? Netanyahu’s party has not got the majority, but his entire coalition is in the race to form the government. The opposition also needs the support of other parties for majority. The 19 seats of Arab parties are important in the mathematics of government formation, but there are differences in the opposition camp regarding alliance with them. This could be the biggest opportunity for Netanyahu. Ultimately, who will form the government will depend on which leader is able to garner the support of 61 MPs. The election has not been easy for Netanyahu, but his chances of returning to power are not over yet. ——————–
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नेतन्याहू पिछले 8 चुनावों में इस बार सबसे कमजोर: उनकी पार्टी को 27 सीटें मिलीं, बहुमत से दूर, फिर भी सरकार बना लेने के आसार
