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Israel elections: How many seats are needed to win? What are deciding factors, will Iran be one of them? Who are contenders? Who are supporting Netanyahu? How will it impact India?
A campaign banner of Netanyahu’s Likud party in Bnei Brak, Israel. (REUTERS)
The October 27, 2026 election is widely viewed as a direct referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. At stake is his political survival and his ability to remain prime minister while facing active corruption trials and international arrest warrants.
A loss would strip him of power and subject his administration to severe public accountability and independent investigations regarding the structural intelligence and security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023 attacks.
VOTER ROLL AND PREPARATION
Voting in the 2026 Israeli general election will take place on Tuesday, 27 October 2026. General polling stations across the country are open from 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM local time.
7,331,981 citizens are registered and eligible to vote in this election. This represents 71.15% of Israel’s total population of 10.3 million.
Roughly 810,000 eligible voters live abroad. Because Israel does not allow mail-in or proxy voting for regular citizens, tens of thousands are flying back to vote in person.
As more than 7.3 million Israelis prepare to head to the polls across 12,018 voting locations, the country’s Central Elections Committee has deployed a 690-million-NIS logistical plan to decide the makeup of the 120-seat Knesset and set the stage for crucial post-election coalition building.
At A Glance
A total of 7,331,981 citizens are registered and eligible to vote in the October 27, 2026 election, representing 71.15% of Israel’s total population.
A minimum of 61 seats is required to control a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Pre-election tracking projects the anti-Netanyahu opposition bloc to capture 51 to 55 seats and the pro-Netanyahu coalition to trail at 48 to 51 seats.
Party lists must clear a minimum of 3.25% of the national vote to enter the Knesset.
HOW MANY SEATS ARE NEEDED TO WIN?
A total of 61 seats are needed to control a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Because no single party has ever won a 61-seat majority outright in Israel’s history, the winner is determined by whichever leader can successfully negotiate and piece together a coalition government.
HOW MANY YEARS HAS NETANYAHU BEEN IN POWER?
As of October 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu has been in power as the Prime Minister of Israel for a cumulative total of 19 years. He is the longest-serving prime minister in the country’s history, having broken the longevity record previously held by Israel’s founding father, David Ben-Gurion.
His time in power is split across three distinct tenures spanning parts of four decades:
First Tenure (1996–1999): 3 years and 18 days
Second Tenure (2009–2021): 12 years and 74 days (the longest consecutive premiership in Israeli history)
Third Tenure (2022–Present): 3 years and counting (assumed office on December 29, 2022)
In total, he has headed six different Israeli governments and has served as the leader of the right-wing Likud party for the vast majority of his political career.
WHO ARE NETANYAHU’s MAIN CHALLENGERS?
Gadi Eisenkot: The former military Chief of Staff leading the Yashar party has emerged as Netanyahu’s principal opponent. He is campaigning heavily on government accountability and ending military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men.
Naftali Bennett & Yair Lapid: Leading the Together alliance (Beyachad), the former prime ministers represent a major right-to-center challenge to the incumbent coalition.
Avigdor Liberman: Heading the right-wing Yisrael Beyteinu, he remains a significant secular-nationalist opponent.
Yair Golan: Heading The Democrats, a left-wing party formed by merging the remnants of Labour and Meretz.
HOW ELECTIONS WORK IN ISRAEL
Proportional Representation: The entire country operates as a single electoral district. Citizens vote for closed party lists, not individual politicians or prime ministers.
Electoral Threshold: To enter the Knesset, a party list must clear a minimum 3.25% of the national vote (roughly equivalent to 4 seats).
Post-Election Mandate: After official results are published, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders and task the candidate with the highest likelihood of forming a government with a 28-day window to build a coalition.
DECISIVE FACTORS IN THE 2026 ELECTION
The Ultra-Orthodox Conscription Issue: Tensions over ending military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men amidst ongoing wartime manpower shortages.
October 7 Accountability: Voters are highly focused on security failures and demands for an independent state commission of inquiry.
The Arab-Majority Parties: Parties like Ra’am and the Joint List are projected to hold about 13 seats. If both the Netanyahu and opposition blocs fall short of 61 seats, these unaligned Arab parties will hold the balance of power as absolute kingmakers.
Fringe Party Thresholds: Whether smaller fringe parties pass or fall below the strict 3.25% voting threshold will completely reshape the final seat allocations between the major blocs.
WILL IRAN WAR IMPACT THE OUTCOME?
The war with Iran is heavily impacting the election, serving as both Netanyahu’s primary argument for survival and his biggest political liability. The three-year conflict has completely reshaped the electoral map, but it cuts both ways depending entirely on which voter bloc is looking at it.
The conflict is steering the election outcome through several critical dynamics:
A Stark Divide in Voter Priorities
The conflict has created a massive psychological split between the two main voting blocs:
For the Netanyahu Bloc: The war with Iran is their number one priority (21%). Netanyahu’s supporters view his hawkish stance—including his recent directive to the military to explicitly target the toppling of the Tehran regime—as proof that he is the only leader strong enough to safeguard Israel.
For the Opposition Bloc: The war is a secondary issue, ranking at just 10%. Instead, opposition voters are driven heavily by accountability for the October 7 failure (28%) and domestic crises. They view the unresolved conflict with Iran not as a triumph, but as a symptom of Netanyahu’s long-term security failures.
The Backlash Over the U.S.-Brokered Truce
A major turning point in the campaign trail was the June pause in direct Israel-Iran strikes, which was brokered by US President Donald Trump. This truce proved highly unpopular with the Israeli public, with polls showing 65% to 70% of Jewish Israelis believing the halt did not serve national security interests. The opposition, led by former general Gadi Eisenkot, has successfully weaponised this truce to paint Netanyahu as weak and indecisive, leaving Iran’s nuclear program intact.
Strategy vs. Survival (The Final Days)
Political analysts point out that Netanyahu is highly incentivised to keep the public focus entirely on external existential threats to rally his right-wing base. Security officials have noted that the threat of renewed kinetic military operations or sudden Iranian retaliation in the immediate post-election period could severely disrupt his rivals’ attempts to form a coalition. A crisis could force centrist opposition figures into a “national emergency unity government,” effectively keeping Netanyahu in power even if his bloc falls short of a 61-seat majority.
WILL A CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP END THE WAR?
Regional analysts emphasize that while a change in leadership might alter the style of the war, it will not change Israel’s core strategy. Both Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar parties are deeply hawkish on national defense. The strategic consensus across Israel’s political spectrum has permanently hardened around three pillars: breaking Iran’s regional influence, enforcing strict buffer zones, and using overwhelming military deterrence.
The main difference is one of scope: Netanyahu is openly pushing to topple the Iranian regime, whereas a new opposition-led coalition would likely pursue narrower, calculated goals—such as dismantling the nuclear program through closer coordination with the United States and Western allies. For its part, Iran’s foreign ministry stated on 26 October that the outcome of the vote “makes no difference” to Tehran.
WHO IS BACKING NETANYAHU?
Netanyahu’s primary international support comes directly from US President Donald Trump, who issued a “complete and total” endorsement on October 18, 2026. Beyond the White House, Netanyahu’s support network spans specific international partners and a deeply entrenched domestic coalition.
International Backing
The US Presidency (Donald Trump): Breaking traditional US foreign policy norms of remaining neutral in foreign democratic contests, Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Truth Social. Trump labeled him a “great warrior prime minister” and the optimal partner to confront Iran. He warned Israeli voters that if Netanyahu were replaced, the US might have to shoulder regional security burdens alone.
India: Netanyahu has publicly highlighted India as an unwavering global ally. Pointing to the “tremendous support” from its 1.4 billion people and deep social media backing, the relationship remains fortified by the Special Strategic Partnership elevated during Prime Minister Modi’s engagement with his administration.
In Israel
Inside Israel, Netanyahu relies entirely on a right-wing nationalist and religious bloc to maintain power:
Far-Right Ultranationalists: National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism) completely back Netanyahu to ensure their hardline policies regarding regional conflict and West Bank settlements remain active.
Ultra-Orthodox Factions: The Shas and United Torah Judaism parties remain fiercely loyal to Netanyahu, primarily because his bloc promises to preserve their highly controversial military conscription exemptions amidst ongoing wartime shortages.
Likud Loyalists: Core right-wing Israeli voters who trust his decades-long promises of national strength, resistance against a Palestinian state, and pushback against liberal elites.
WHO IS NOT BACKING NETANYAHU?
While Trump has offered personal support, Netanyahu faces severe pushback elsewhere:
US Public & Officials: A March 2026 Pew Research poll showed 59% of US adults had little to no confidence in Netanyahu. Furthermore, some senior Trump advisers, including envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have expressed behind-the-scenes frustration regarding Netanyahu’s obstruction of regional diplomatic plans.
The Diaspora: Prominent US-based Jewish organizations, such as the America Israel Democracy (AID) Coalition, have actively funded campaigns to fly thousands of expatriate Israelis back to the country specifically to vote against Netanyahu’s government.
PROJECTIONS: WHO WILL WIN?
Final pre-election polls show a deadlocked race with no clear path to a majority for either side, making it impossible to predict an outright winner.
According to tracking across major networks (including Channel 12, Channel 13, and KAN), the anti-Netanyahu opposition bloc is projected to capture 51 to 55 seats, while the pro-Netanyahu coalition trails closely at 48 to 51 seats. Because neither side is hitting the mandatory 61-seat mark, Israel faces an intense period of post-election coalition horse-trading, the potential formation of a wide national unity government, or a complete political deadlock that could trigger yet another rapid election cycle.
WHEN WILL THE RESULTS BE OUT?
The results of the 2026 Israeli legislative election will be released in phases following the closure of voting stations on Tuesday, October 27, 2026:
Exit Polls: Broadcasted by major Israeli television networks immediately at 22:00 local time (20:00 GMT) on Tuesday, October 27. These give the first projected indication of the vote but are subject to change as actual ballots are counted.
Preliminary Results: Expected to trickle in throughout the night, with a clear picture of the preliminary raw count emerging on the morning of Wednesday, October 28.
Official Final Results: The Central Elections Committee (CEC) is scheduled to publish and formally confirm the final verified results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
IMPACT ON INDIA
If Netanyahu Wins (Continuity): A victory ensures strong diplomatic continuity. Ties will remain robust across expanded sectors including defense, intelligence, agriculture, and technology, fueled by Netanyahu’s close personal rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
If the Opposition Wins (Stability): An Eisenkot-led or centrist government will not fundamentally change Israel’s strategic outlook. Bilateral defense ties and core national security interests with India are institutionalized and enjoy deep consensus across Israel’s political spectrum, though a new government may alter domestic reform and look to smooth over frayed relations with Western allies.
Quick Answers
Ask News18Voting for the Israeli general election takes place on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, with polling stations open nationwide from 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM local time. Exit polls are broadcast immediately at 22:00 local time, preliminary raw results emerge on Wednesday, October 28, and official final results are scheduled to be published on November 4, 2026.
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At the news desk for 20 years, the story of her life has revolved around finding pun, facts while reporting, on radio, heading a daily newspaper desk, teaching mass media students to now editing speci…Read More
October 26, 2026, 17:16 IST
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