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Talarico, the Democratic nominee for the US Senate, has held a narrow lead over Republican rival Ken Paxton in recent polls.
At left, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks in McKinney, Texas, May 19, 2026, and at right, Texas state Rep. James Talarico, after voting, in Austin, Texas, Feb. 17, 2026. (IMAGE: AP File Photo)
For years, Texas has been the Democratic Party’s white whale, an elusive prize that has repeatedly slipped out of reach. With the US midterm elections days away, Democrat James Talarico is giving his party fresh hope of finally turning the Republican stronghold blue.
Talarico, the Democratic nominee for the US Senatehas held a narrow lead over Republican rival Ken Paxton in recent polls, making the contest one of the races to watch on November 3.
The phrase “white whale” comes from Herman Melville’s 1851 novel Moby-Dick, in which Captain Ahab becomes consumed by his pursuit of a giant white whale. It has since come to describe a coveted goal that remains frustratingly elusive. For DemocratsTexas has long represented that challenge, with repeated attempts to break Republican dominance falling short.
Poll averages compiled by The Texas Tribune from surveys conducted after the May 26 Republican runoff put Talarico at 48.9% and Paxton at 46.7%. The averages account for a poll’s recency, sample size and partisan affiliation.
Individual surveys also show a close contest. An ActiVote poll conducted from October 17 to 21 among 400 likely voters gave Talarico a 51% to 49% lead. A Verasight poll for VoteHub put his advantage at 2.4 percentage points, while an Emerson College survey for Nexstar showed him ahead 49% to 48%. A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company found the candidates tied at 49%.
The narrow margins offer Democrats an opening, but they do not erase the challenge of winning statewide in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for decades.
A Democratic opening, but no guarantee
The race has revived memories of 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within three percentage points of unseating Republican Senator Ted Cruz. According to The Associated Press (AP)Talarico has generated comparable enthusiasm, raised more money than O’Rourke did and faces a Republican opponent with a more politically complicated record.
Paxton, Texas’ attorney general, secured Donald Trump’s endorsement before defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. His political career has also been shadowed by corruption allegations that led to his impeachment by the Texas House in 2023. The Texas Senate later acquitted him. His highly publicised divorce has added to the scrutiny.
Paxton has sought to portray Talarico as an extreme liberal, highlighting his positions on transgender rights and past comments about religion. Talarico, a state representative and Presbyterian seminary student, has instead focused on corruption, affordability and economic frustrations, seeking to appeal to voters beyond the Democratic base.
“We’re going to shock the world when we take back Texas,” Talarico told supporters this week, according to AP.
Paxton has cast the race in starkly different terms. “If we lose Texas, we lose America,” he told his supporters.
Musk’s money and Trump’s shadow
The contest is also testing the influence of big money and presidential backing. According to AP, advertising spending in the race had approached $340 million after the candidates secured their nominations. While Talarico’s campaign initially outspent Paxton, Republican-aligned outside groups have poured money into the contest.
Billionaire Elon Musk has become a major financial force behind Paxton’s bid, contributing to Republican-aligned political groups supporting the Texas race. Trump has also visited the state and publicly backed the attorney general.
Talarico has turned that financial support into an argument about political influence and accountability. He has accused Paxton of being beholden to wealthy donors, telling supporters that the Republican is funded by “one dude” who wants “his very own personal United States senator”, AP reported.
Paxton is counting on Trump’s endorsement and Republican voters’ loyalty to carry him across the finish line.
Quick Answers
Ask News18The Texas US Senate race features Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton. Talarico is a state representative and former middle-school teacher, while Paxton serves as the Texas Attorney General.
Ask News18About the Author
Shankhyaneel Sarkar is a chief sub editor at News18. He covers international affairs, where he focuses on breaking news to in-depth analyses. He has over seven years of experience during which he has …Read More
Washington D.C., United States of America (USA)
October 25, 2026, 6:10 PM IST
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