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Pro-independence leaders from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will meet in Cardiff on Monday to press their case for constitutional change.
British PM Andy Burnham. (Reuters)
The question of whether the United Kingdom could one day break apart is back in focus, with pro-independence leaders from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland preparing to jointly press Westminster over their right to determine their constitutional future.
The United Kingdom is made up of four constituent countries — England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. While all four are governed ultimately from Westminster, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also have their own devolved governments with powers over several domestic matters.
Now, for the first time, pro-independence parties are simultaneously in power in all three devolved nations.
Scottish First Minister John Swinney, Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth and Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill are due to meet in Cardiff on Monday alongside Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald.
According to The Guardianthe parties are expected to sign a memorandum calling on Westminster “to prepare, plan and facilitate constitutional change in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland”.
So, how serious is the threat of a UK break-up?
What Has Changed In The UK’s Independence Debate?
At the heart of the Cardiff meeting is a shared demand that people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should have a greater say over whether they remain part of the UK.
Swinney leads the Scottish National Party, which campaigns for Scotland to become an independent country. Ap Iorwerth heads Plaid Cymru, which supports Welsh independence. O’Neill belongs to Sinn Féin, whose long-standing objective is to end Northern Ireland’s place in the UK and create a united Ireland.
The Guardian reported that the three first ministers are attending Monday’s meeting as party leaders rather than formally representing their governments. The summit will also cover areas such as Europe, the economy and energy, but the constitutional question is likely to attract the most attention.
A Plaid Cymru source told The Guardian that the talks were an opportunity for “a new partnership between our nations”, including cooperation over “the right to self-determination”.
Scotland Has Already Voted Once
Scotland is the most obvious starting point in any discussion about a possible break-up of the UK because it has already voted on independence.
In 2014, Scotland held a referendum asking voters whether the country should leave the United Kingdom and become independent. The answer was no.
About a decade later, however, the independence question remains alive. The latest polling cited by The Guardian suggests 47 per cent of Scottish voters would now back independence, with support generally remaining between 45 and 50 per cent since the 2014 vote.
The key dispute is over whether Scotland should be allowed to hold another referendum.
A fresh vote cannot simply be called by the Scottish government on the same basis as an ordinary election. Westminster’s position therefore matters.
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham suggested in the Commons last week that another referendum could take place if there were a “clear consensus” for one, according to The Telegraph.
However, The Guardian reported that Burnham later wrote to Swinney saying a repeat of the 2014 referendum remained “off limits”.
Swinney said ahead of the Cardiff meeting: “We are at a pivotal moment of constitutional change, and our parties share the common belief that our interests will never be served by Westminster, and that the people of our respective nations must have a meaningful say over their future.”
Northern Ireland Is A Different Case
Northern Ireland’s position is fundamentally different from Scotland’s.
The debate there is not about creating a completely new independent state. Sinn Féin wants Northern Ireland to leave the United Kingdom and reunify with the Republic of Ireland.
That possibility is already recognised under the Good Friday Agreement, the 1998 peace accord that helped bring an end to decades of conflict in Northern Ireland.
Under the agreement, a referendum — commonly known as a border poll — can be held if it “appears likely” that a majority in Northern Ireland would vote in favour of joining the Republic of Ireland. That gives Northern Ireland an established route to changing its constitutional status.
The latest polling cited by The Guardianhowever, puts support for reunification at 36 per cent — well short of a majority.
The issue received fresh attention over the weekend after US President Donald Trump weighed in during a visit to Ireland. Trump said he would “love” to see a united Ireland, described it as “a great thing” and asked: “How can it be bad?”
His comments drew a rebuttal from the UK government and unionist members of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive. Unionists support Northern Ireland remaining part of the United Kingdom, while nationalists generally favour Irish reunification.
What Has Changed In Wales?
Wales has traditionally been the least advanced of the three independence movements. That is why Plaid Cymru’s victory in the May Senedd election matters.
The Senedd is Wales’s devolved parliament, and Plaid Cymru emerged as its largest party, resulting in Ap Iorwerth becoming First Minister.
Plaid has long advocated Welsh independence, meaning the country is now led by a party that openly supports leaving the United Kingdom. The latest polling cited by The Guardian suggests 32 per cent of Welsh voters currently favour independence.
That is lower than the level of support seen in Scotland, but Plaid’s electoral success has given the issue greater political weight.
It also means that, for the first time, leaders who favour major constitutional change are simultaneously in power in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.
So, Is The UK Actually Heading For A Break-Up?
Not immediately.
There is currently no independence or reunification referendum scheduled in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Nor does the polling show majority support for leaving the UK in any of the three.
The political picture has nevertheless shifted. Scotland’s independence movement remains strong, Sinn Féin continues to push for Irish reunification from the top of Northern Ireland’s devolved government, and Plaid Cymru’s electoral breakthrough has given Welsh independence greater political weight.
For now, though, the numbers provide the clearest answer: momentum may be building, but a break-up of the UK is not imminent.
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Ask News18The pro-independence leaders are meeting in Cardiff to sign a memorandum calling on Westminster to prepare, plan, and facilitate constitutional change in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The summit serves as an opportunity to press for the right to self-determination and demand a greater say over whether their nations remain part of the UK. While the leaders are attending as party heads rather than formal government representatives, they also plan to discuss other areas such as Europe, the economy, and energy.
Ask News18About the Author
Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follo…Read More
September 14, 2026, 08:43 IST
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