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A Democratic win in the US midterms could reopen the door to Trump’s impeachment, while control of the Senate would shape what happens next.
US President Donald Trump looks on during a meeting with travel industry executives in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (AFP photo)
US President Donald Trump has already been impeached twice. Now, with the November US midterm elections just two months away, the possibility of an unprecedented third impeachment is beginning to creep back into Washington’s political conversation.
At the heart of that debate is the fight for control of the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress and the body that has the constitutional power to impeach a president.
Republicans currently hold an extremely narrow House majority. They have 218 seats, compared with the Democrats’ 214. Democrats therefore need only a relatively small net gain to wrest control of the chamber.
There are signs that the political environment is moving in their favour. The Cook Political Report, which tracks congressional races across the US, said in June that Democrats remained in a “strong position” to regain the House. Its August ratings listed 184 seats as solidly Democratic, another 21 as likely or leaning Democratic and 21 as toss-ups.
The Hillciting two election forecasting models, reported that American statistician and election analyst Nate Silver’s model put Democrats’ chances of taking the House at 86 per cent, while Decision Desk HQ estimated the probability at 66 per cent.
At the same time, senior Democrats are beginning to face questions about what they would actually do with that majority, including whether they would once again move against Trump.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has conspicuously refused to close that door. Asked by CNN whether Democrats would pursue impeachment if they regained the House, Jeffries said, “we haven’t ruled anything in, and we haven’t ruled anything out”.
He said Democrats would “follow the facts, apply the law, and be guided by the United States Constitution” when confronted with what he called “moments of accountability”.
But could a Democratic victory in November really put Trump on course to become the first US president to be impeached three times? And even if Democrats impeached him, could they actually force him out of the White House?
What Happens If Democrats Win The House?
The first thing to understand is that Democrats would not need control of both chambers of Congress to impeach Trump.
Under the US Constitutionthe House of Representatives has the “sole Power of Impeachment”. In practical terms, articles of impeachment can be approved by a simple majority of representatives voting.
That means if Democrats win a House majority in November and enough of their members support impeachment, they could approve articles against Trump after the new Congress takes office in January 2027. And pressure within the party to do exactly that has already been building.
Axios reported in April that a group of House Democrats was pushing colleagues to begin preparing an impeachment case even before the midterms, with an eye on moving rapidly if the party returned to power.
Illinois Democrat Delia Ramirez said Democrats should “build up the case” so that if they took control in January, they would already have conducted the necessary groundwork. Arizona Democrat Yassamin Ansari predicted that if Democrats recaptured the House, “the push for impeachment is going to be overwhelming”.
But Impeachment Does Not Mean Trump Would Be Removed
Impeachment and removal from office are two different stages of the US constitutional process.
The House decides whether to impeach a president. If it approves one or more articles of impeachment, the case moves to the Senate, which conducts the trial.
Conviction requires the support of two-thirds of senators present. If all 100 senators participate, that means 67 senators must vote to convict. A president who is convicted is removed from office.
That threshold makes Trump’s actual removal a much harder proposition.
Even if Democrats have a strong midterm election and capture the Senate as well as the House, reaching the 67 votes needed to convict Trump would be virtually impossible on their own because only 33 of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for election in November. They would therefore still need a significant number of Republican senators to join them in convicting Trump.
Trump’s previous impeachment trials illustrate just how difficult that is.
His first Senate trial ended in acquittal in February 2020. On one of the two articles against him, 47 senators voted guilty and 53 not guilty. His second trial came much closer. In February 2021, 57 senators — including seven Republicans — voted to convict Trump over the charge of incitement of insurrection following the January 6 attack on the US Capitol.
But 43 senators voted not guilty, leaving the prosecution 10 votes short of the 67 that would have been required with all senators voting.
Trump was therefore acquitted both times.
A third impeachment could confront Democrats with exactly the same problem: enough votes in the House to charge the president, but nowhere near enough votes in the Senate to remove him.
So Why Does Winning The Senate Matter?
Because Senate control would shape how any impeachment trial unfolds. A Republican-controlled Senate could move quickly to acquit Trump, while a Democratic-controlled chamber could pursue a longer trial with more scrutiny of evidence, witnesses and documents, even if Democrats still lacked the 67 votes needed to convict him. That is why one senior Democrat told Axios that the appetite for impeachment “depends if we win the Senate”.
Would Trump Really Become The First President Impeached Three Times?
If the House impeached Trump again, he would enter uncharted territory.
Only three US presidents have ever been impeached by the House: Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton and Trump. None was convicted by the Senate.
Trump is already unique because he is the only US president to have been impeached twice. A fresh House vote would make him the first to be impeached three times.
Quick Answers
Ask News18If Democrats win both the House and Senate, it would reopen the door to impeaching Donald Trump, though actually removing him from office would remain virtually impossible without significant Republican support. A Democratic victory would also derail Trump’s agenda by ending his unchecked control, blocking his legislative plans, and allowing Democrats to launch investigations, hold hearings, and issue subpoenas to probe corruption and federal overreach.
Ask News18About the Author
Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follo…Read More
September 03, 2026, 2:55 PM IST
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