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Is Iran losing control of the Strait of Hormuz? Kpler data shows that over 80 per cent of recent vessel transits are using the Omani route.
US naval forces patrol the Strait of Hormuz as shipping traffic shifts towards the Omani route amid tensions with Iran. (Photo: AP)
Iran appears to be losing some of its ability to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, even as vessel traffic remains sharply depressed amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and stalled diplomatic efforts.
More than 80 per cent of vessel transits through the strategic waterway over the past two weeks have used the Omani route, which is a UN-authorised shipping channel that Iran strongly opposes, CNN reported, citing shipping analytics firm Kpler.
The shift suggests that vessels are increasingly willing to challenge Tehran’s preferred route while relying on protection from US naval forces.
ALSO READ | ‘7,000 Miles From Reality’: Iran Security Chief Mocks Trump’s Hormuz ‘US Territory’ Claim
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN that “it increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait.”
CNN reported that Iran has attacked dozens of ships attempting to use the route along Oman’s northern coast.
Despite those risks, most vessels have recently opted to use the Omani passage, according to Kpler’s tracking of ship transponders and satellite data.
Vessel Traffic Remains Far Below Normal
While the shift in routes indicates a possible erosion of Iranian control, overall shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted.
Reuters reported on August 18 that only six commodity ships crossed the strait on Monday, slightly above the two vessels recorded on Sunday and three on Saturday.
The figure remained well below the 10-day average of 11 ships.
Reuters said there were no very large crude carriers (VLCCs) or liquefied natural gas tankers among Monday’s crossings.
Kpler data showed three vessels entered the Gulf and three exited it.
The very large gas carrier Xavia entered through the Iranian route while carrying no cargo.
Reuters also reported that a medium-range fuel tanker and an intermediate-range tanker entered the Gulf, while a medium-sized LPG carrier, a Panamax bulk carrier and a Panamax-sized fuel tanker exited.
Some vessels may not have been captured in the tally because their transponders could have been switched off.
The Associated Press separately reported that confirmed crossings had fallen 19.5 per cent last week to 95, with just three vessels crossing on Sunday.
Unlike the recent shift highlighted by CNN, AP said those Sunday vessels used the Iranian-designated route, with no crossings recorded through the Omani routes that day.
Bab El-Mandeb Sees Different Traffic Pattern
The disruption has also affected shipping around the wider region.
Reuters said 19 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint on Monday, below both the 10-day average of 26 and Sunday’s 33 crossings.
ALSO READ | ‘Hormuz Shut Until Our Demands Are Met’: Iran’s Fresh Warning As West Asia War Drags On
The AP report, covering the previous week, said crossings through Bab el-Mandeb had risen 6.7 per cent to 254.
It also noted a decline in “dark transits”, voyages in which vessels switch off their location-transmitting transponders, from 40 to 16.
Reuters reported that one of Monday’s Bab el-Mandeb crossings was the VLCC Norns, carrying 2 million barrels of oil out of the Red Sea.
Among vessels entering was the Portofino, which was carrying diesel bound for markets west of the Suez Canal.
Trump Denies Iran Talks As Hormuz Fight Continues
The shipping developments come as uncertainty over US-Iran diplomacy continues.
US President Donald Trump said Tuesday that there were no talks or conversations underway with Iran and none scheduled, contradicting comments by his envoy and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who had described the discussions as “very positive and active”.
Trump also posted a map on Truth Social portraying the Strait of Hormuz as “NEW U.S. Territory”.
He said the waterway was open and that mines had been removed or detonated.
AFP reported that US sources acknowledged there had been positive discussions with Iran but said Trump had chosen to wait before further engagement.
Iran, meanwhile, has said it will not reopen the strait until Washington fulfils commitments Tehran says were made in a June memorandum of understanding.
Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the waterway would remain closed until those commitments were implemented.
ALSO READ | Donald Trump Declares Strait Of Hormuz ‘New US Territory’ As Iran Keeps Waterway Shut
About the Author
Vani Mehrotra is the Deputy News Editor at News18.com. She has more than 10 years of experience in national and international news and has previously worked on multiple desks.
August 19, 2026, 07:43 IST
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