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India’s retail inflation rate is likely to remain stable at 4.4% in July 2026. Economists believe that despite the increase in the prices of food items, inflation may remain stable. Inflation figures will be released today, August 12, at 4 pm.
Prices of food items increased, but there was relief from base effect
Food items have become expensive in July. However, due to the low base of last year i.e. July 2025 (1.6%), the impact of the increase in prices this time may be limited on the overall inflation rate. For this reason, the overall inflation figure is expected to remain around 4.4%.
Above RBI’s 4% target for the second consecutive month
The Reserve Bank has set the target of retail inflation rate at 4%. If the July figure comes in at 4.4% as per estimates, it will be the second consecutive month when retail inflation will be recorded above the RBI’s comfort zone of 4%.
How does inflation increase and decrease?
The rise and fall of inflation depends on the demand and supply of the product. If people have more money they will buy more things. This will increase the demand for things and if there is no supply, their prices will increase. Whereas if demand is less and supply is more then inflation will be less.
What does 4.40% inflation rate mean?
1. Comparison with previous year (year-on-year)
When we say that inflation in June 2026 is 4.40%, it means that we are comparing it with June 2025. That’s a whole year’s worth of change. 4.40% is an average number called the ‘Consumer Price Index’. This includes hundreds of things in your life:
The price of something may have increased a lot.
The prices of some things may also have decreased.
When all of this was added together, average spending increased by 4.38%.
2. An item of ₹100 is now worth ₹104.40
Its mathematics is very simple. If you bought an item like ration for ₹ 100 in June 2025, then the same item will cost ₹ 104.40 in May 2026.
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