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‘The pricing environment has become more favourable with only 3+1 players and we expect another 12-15% tariff hike over the next 3-4 months,’ says Centrum Institutional Research.

Private telecom operators are expected to post modest growth in the June quarter, with average revenue per user (ARPU) likely to rise 1-1.5 per cent sequentially, says Centrum Institutional Research.
India’s telecom users may have to brace for another round of tariff hikes, with brokerage Centrum Institutional Research expecting mobile service providers to raise tariffs by 12-15 per cent over the next three to four months as the sector’s pricing environment turns more favourable following market consolidation.
“The pricing environment has become more favourable with only 3+1 players and we expect another 12-15% tariff hike over the next 3 to 4 months,” Centrum Institutional Research said in its Q1FY27 telecom and internet sector preview report.
The brokerage expects private telecom operators to post modest growth in the June quarter, with average revenue per user (ARPU) likely to rise 1-1.5 per cent sequentially. The increase is expected to be driven by continued migration of users from 2G to 4G and 5G networks, growth in postpaid subscribers and the higher number of days during the quarter.
Centrum believes market share gains will continue to favour Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio, while Vodafone Idea is likely to remain under pressure.
“Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio would continue to gain subscriber market share at the expense of VIL. Reliance Jio is expected to add ~7mn subscribers QoQ, while Bharti Airtel is expected to add ~5mn subscribers QoQ. We expect VIL to add ~0.2mn customers QoQ,” the report said.
The report also expects mobile data consumption to remain strong as 4G and 5G adoption continues to deepen across the country.
“Data usage per customer would remain robust, led by growing penetration of 4G/5G networks. Reliance Jio and Airtel have covered 90%+ districts with 5G services and the focus is on adding more 5G devices to their network,” the report said.
According to Centrum, both Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are witnessing strong momentum in 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) and fixed broadband services as penetration in the segment remains relatively low.
The brokerage noted that Vodafone Idea is also expanding its next-generation network footprint. “VIL’s 5G network is present in around 100 cities and it is ramping up its 5G coverage,” the report said.
Centrum further highlighted an improvement in Vodafone Idea’s financial position, stating that “AGR dues liability has significantly come down for VIL to Rs 25k crore as present value of future AGR payment obligations.”
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