Donald Trump’s renewed push to secure a new nuclear agreement with Iran is being viewed by many through the lens of the deal negotiated by former US President Barack Obama. Trump has repeatedly criticised the 2015 pact, calling it the “worst deal ever”.
Since he spent years slamming Obama’s nuclear agreement and withdrew from it in 2018, Trump does not want to sign a new deal that looks too similar.
Trump is focused on making a new Iran deal that he can present as better than the 2015 agreement. Though it seems that the draft memorandum of understanding (MoU), which is being discussed with Iran, is, in some ways, similar to the deal he had strongly opposed.
“Trump will be very worried about his deal being compared to Obama’s because ripping up the JCPOA was a centrepiece of the early days of his first administration,” said Andrew Moran, a professor at the London Metropolitan University, according to the iPaper.
The Obama deal placed limits on Iran’s nuclear activities for 15 years until 2030. In 2015, Tehran even gave almost 97 percent of its uranium to Russia.
Trump argued that the deal was not strong enough and pulled the US out of the agreement in 2018. Soon after, Iran started increasing uranium enrichment earlier than expected, which brought it closer to being able to build a nuclear bomb.
“If that deal had stayed in place, it is unlikely that we would be in the situation that we’re in now,” said Moran.
Trump is facing pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hardline members of his own Republican Party. They want any agreement with Iran to be tougher than the 2015 deal and do not want sanctions on Iran to be eased without major concessions.
At that time, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67 percent, far below the roughly 90 percent enrichment needed for a nuclear weapon. The deal limited Iran’s uranium stockpile to 300 kilograms. Iran now has about 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent.
The US is now pushing for a long-term agreement, including a 20-year ban on uranium enrichment and a firm commitment that Iran will never develop nuclear weapons. The proposed plan also includes a possible 60-day ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, and restarting talks on Iran’s nuclear programme.
“It feels like the whole framework of these negotiations is based on the Obama deal, the only difference being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which was open and running freely until Trump started this war,” said Mark Shanahan, associate professor at the University of Surrey.
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