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Indian equities may open higher as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signals imminent Iran-US peace deal progress, easing West Asia tensions
Rubio’s Late Remark Fuels Hopes Of Positive Opening Across Global Stock Markets
Nifty Prediction For Monday: The Indian equity market may see a big gap-up opening on Monday, May 25, once the session starts, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday, who is on a visit to India, indicated that the good news on the Iran-US peace deal will likely be announced in the next few hours.
During a press interaction in New Delhi alongside External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Rubio reiterated Washington’s position that Iran must never possess a nuclear weapon and stressed the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for global shipping.
“I do think perhaps there is the possibility that in the next few hours the world will get some good news,” Rubio told reporters in New Delhi.
He added that negotiations were still ongoing and described the issue as technically complex.
“We have made some progress in the last 48 hours, but we still have some work to do.”
The positive development regarding the ongoing West Asia crisis will bring cheers to investors who were bracing for a gloomy and muted investing environment since the fallout of the war in late February 2026.
The crude oil prices also cooled off over the progress in negotiations to conclude the weeks-long war. Brent crude traded near $103 per barrel, while WTI crude futures came below $100 per barrel.
The Iran-US war has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint where 20 per cent of global crude oil and natural gas is passed. The closure has put strain on the energy supply chain, shooting up prices of crude oil to rise over $100 per barrel.
Nifty Prediction For Monday
For Monday’s trade, analysts expect the Nifty to remain range-bound with a positive bias. Readers should know that the prediction came before Rubio’s hint at good news development of Iran-US war peace deal.
Immediate support is seen near 23,300, while resistance is placed in the 23,800–24,000 zone. A breakout above resistance could strengthen bullish momentum, while failure to hold support may again trigger selling pressure.
Key Events to Watch This Week
Religare Broking’s Ajit Mishra said the upcoming week is expected to remain highly sensitive to global macroeconomic developments, currency movements, and policy commentary. To begin with, participants will closely assess the impact of the RBI’s record dividend transfer on liquidity expectations, fiscal flexibility, and government spending prospects going forward.
Investors will also monitor crude oil prices, developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the trajectory of the US dollar and bond yields, all of which are expected to influence foreign flows and overall risk appetite.
Domestically, Industrial Production (IIP) data for April 2026, scheduled for release on 28 May, will be closely tracked for insights into manufacturing activity and broader economic momentum after recent signs of moderation.
Market participants will also monitor government budget data and the fiscal deficit position for FY26, scheduled for release on 29 May, which will provide clarity on the government’s fiscal trajectory.
Foreign exchange reserves data will remain another key monitorable amid continued pressure on the rupee and expectations of RBI intervention.
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