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Key Assembly seats in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry will decide May 4 results, with BJP, TMC, DMK, AIADMK, LDF, UDF, TVK all in contention.
Assembly Results 2026: Seats to Watch (Photo: Gemini)
With the Assembly elections held between April 9 and April 29 now complete, attention has now shifted to counting day on May 4. Across West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, several key constituencies are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the final outcome. Around 20 high-profile seats stand out as battlegrounds where intense contests could influence the broader political picture.
The BJP is aiming to retain Assam and expand its presence in southern states. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) is working to defend its stronghold in West Bengal against a determined BJP challenge.
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance faces the AIADMK-BJP combine along with the emergence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Kerala continues its traditional contest between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), while the BJP is seeking to build on its 2024 Lok Sabha gains.
West Bengal
West Bengal remains one of the most closely watched states, with several high-stakes constituencies. In Bhabanipur, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee faces BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari in a direct and politically significant contest. This marks another face-off between the two after their earlier rivalry. A victory for Banerjee would strengthen her position, while a defeat could raise questions about her leadership standing.
Nandigram continues to hold political importance. BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari is contesting against TMC’s Pabitra Kar in a seat known for its role in the 2007 land protests and the narrow 2021 result.
Other constituencies are also drawing attention. In Kharagpur Sadar, former state BJP chief Dilip Ghosh is up against TMC’s Pradip Sarkar. Asansol Dakshin sees BJP’s Agnimitra Paul contest Tapas Banerjee.
Murshidabad, which witnessed significant voter deletions in SIR, has BJP’s Gouri Sankar Ghosh facing TMC’s Shaoni Singha Roy.
In Purba Midnapore’s Moyna, former cricketer Ashoke Dinda is contesting for the BJP against TMC’s Chandan Mondal.
Rejinagar and Nowda bring an added layer of complexity with Humayun Kabir, who has shifted across parties, now leading his own outfit.
Bhangar remains a volatile seat, with TMC’s Saokat Molla facing ISF’s Nawsad Siddique. Diamond Harbour, part of Abhishek Banerjee’s core area, features a contest between TMC’s Pannalal Halder and BJP’s Dipak Kumar Halder.
Exit polls in the state have shown mixed trends. While several pollsters have indicated a BJP edge, others have projected a strong TMC performance, making the final outcome uncertain.
Assam
In Assam, the BJP is aiming to hold on to power, with several high-profile contests under focus.
Jalukbari remains crucial as Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma seeks another term. He faces Congress candidate Bidisha Neog and independent Dipika Das. Sarma has represented the seat since 2001, building a strong support base.
Guwahati Central presents a generational contest between BJP’s Vijay Kumar Gupta and 27-year-old Kunki Chowdhury of the Assam Jatiya Parishad. With a diverse urban electorate, issues of governance and civic concerns are central to this contest.
Jorhat, a key urban and cultural centre, sees BJP veteran Hitendra Nath Goswami face Congress state president Gaurav Gogoi in what is seen as a contest between experience and political legacy.
Binnakandi, a newly created constituency, has emerged as a triangular contest. AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal is attempting a comeback, facing AGP’s Sahabuddin Mazumdar and AJP’s Rejaul Karim Chowdhury.
Exit poll projections suggest a lead for the BJP-led alliance, with estimates placing it well ahead in the 126-member Assembly.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu is witnessing a multi-cornered contest with new political dynamics. Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni remains a stronghold of the DMK, where Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin is contesting. The constituency, with its dense urban population, will test the party’s support base.
Perambur has drawn attention with actor Vijay entering the electoral fray through TVK. His presence is expected to influence voter sentiment across Chennai.
Kolathur, represented by Chief Minister M K Stalin, continues to be politically significant.
Edappadi remains the base of opposition leader Edappadi K Palaniswami, who has maintained a strong local connection over the years.
Karur: Karur emerged as a major flashpoint in the 2026 Tamil Nadu election after a September 2025 stampede at a rally led by Vijay left 41 dead, sparking political blame. In 2021, V Senthilbalaji won the seat. In 2026, candidates include MR Vijayabhaskar (AIADMK), Jayagopal P (BSP), Aasee M Thiagarajan (DMK) and Mathiyalagan VP (TVK).
Exit polls indicate a three-way contest in the state. Some projections suggest a strong debut for TVK, while others favour the DMK-led alliance. The AIADMK-BJP combine remains a key player.
Kerala
Kerala is witnessing another contest between the LDF and UDF, with the BJP also attempting to expand its presence. In Dharmadom, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is contesting again, seeking another term. He faces VP Abdul Rasheed of the UDF and BJP’s K Ranjith.
Paravur is set for a high-stakes contest, with opposition leader VD Satheesan aiming for a sixth consecutive win. He is challenged by CPI’s ET Taison Master among others.
Thrissur, often seen as a political bellwether, is witnessing a close three-way fight between CPI’s Alankode Leelakrishnan, Congress’s Rajan J Pallan, and BJP’s Padmaja Venugopal. With a narrow margin in 2021, even a small shift in votes could change the outcome.
Exit polls in Kerala largely suggest an edge for the UDF, though the LDF remains within a competitive range.
Puducherry
In Puducherry, several constituencies are drawing attention despite the smaller Assembly size. Thattanchavady features a contest between Congress leader V Vaithilingam and Chief Minister N Rangasamy. The seat has long been associated with Rangasamy, making this a significant battle.
Raj Bhavan sees BJP’s VP Ramalingam contest against Vignesh Kannan of the DMK. V Saminathan, now with TVK, faces AINRC leader VP Sivakolundhu in Lawspet.
Thirubhuvanai presents a three-way contest involving AK Sai J Saravanan Kumar, P Angalane and B Kobiga.
Exit polls indicate an advantage for the BJP-led NDA in the Union Territory, with projections suggesting it could secure a majority.
With multiple close contests, shifting alliances and varied exit poll predictions, these key seats are expected to determine the political direction in their respective states. As counting begins on May 4, all eyes will be on these battlegrounds for early trends and decisive outcomes.
Delhi, India, India
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