New Delhi:
The recently held assembly elections across four states and one Union Territory could pack in some big surprises, the Axis My India exit poll has predicted.
In the two Opposition-ruled states, it predicts a regime change: Kerala welcoming back the Congress and Tamil Nadu overhauling the system with a big mandate for actor-politician Vijay.
In Assam and Puducherry, it predicts a sweep by the NDA and its local allies.
TAMIL NADU
Vijay’s TVK Could Script History
The binary politics of Tamil Nadu that has endured for decades since Independence, could be in for a rude shock. Actor-politician Vijay’s TVK (Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam) — formed barely two years ago — could hit it for a six, pulling off a surprise win in the recently concluded assembly election in the southern state, Axis My India Poll has predicted.
The TVK could win 98 to 120 of the state’s 234-member assembly where the majority mark is 118, with a vote share as much as the ruling DMK — 35 per cent.
The DMK — which has been banking on its governance, welfare programmes and the battle against Hindi imposition — could get 92 to 110 seats.
The AIDMK-BJP combine, which was geared up for a do-or-die-battle — may scrape up 22 to 23 seats with a 23 per cent vote share.
Health warning: Exit polls may not always get it right.
The contours of the huge surprise this election might pack in, was arrived at after interviewing nearly 45,000 people across the state’s 234 constituencies. 57 per cent of them were men and 43 per cent women.
Data also indicated that the TVK has captured a huge vote share from the first-time voters — 68 per cent of them have voted for the party. Besides, 59 per cent of 20-29-year-olds and 45 per cent of the 30-39 age group has also voted for the new party. of the 35 per cent people who have been batting for a change in this election, 77 per cent have given a big thumbs up to TVK.
Data also shows that Vijay is the most-preferred Chief Minister, with 37 per cent people rooting for him. Chief Minister MK Stalin, who is hoping for a second term, is the choice of 35 per cent and former Chief Minister E Palaniswami 22 per cent.
ASSAM
Big Endorsement For Himanta Sarma
The battle for 126 seats in Assam — coming on the heels of a bitter political row between the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress over the corruption allegations against Chief Minister Himanta Sarma — could give a third straight term to the BJP, the Axis My India polls have showed.
The NDA is expected to get between 88 and 100 seats — improving on its 2021 performance with a vote share of 48 per cent. Of these seats, 70 to 80 can be scooped up by the BJP alone. Ally Asom Gana Parishad could get between 7 and 9 seats and the BPF 9 to 11 seats.
The Congress-led alliance could get between 24 and 36 seats, with a 38 per cent vote share.
In the 2021 assembly polls, the NDA had won 74 seats, the Congress-led Front 31.
Health warning: Exit polls may not always get it right.
For this poll, the pollsters had interviewed 24,228 people across all 126 seats. Around 60 per cent of the respondents were men and 40 per cent women. The Muslims comprised 29 per cent of the people interviewed, the Other Bcakward Castes 32 per cent, 16 per cent Scheduled Tribes and 8 per cent Scheduled Castes.
The rural-urban divide was large — 86 per cent to 14 per cent. More women voted for the NDA than men — 50 per cent to 46 per cent, the exit poll showed. Most of these votes — 52 per cent — came from urban areas. The figure for rural areas was 47 per cent.
For the Congress-led Front, 39 per cent men voted, the women’s vote was lower — 37 per cent. of this, 39 per cent votes came from rural areas and 34 per cent from the urban areas.
Caste-wise, there has been a positive swing for the NDA — with Scheduled caste and tribe votes going up by 3 per cent and the general category by 5 per cent. The Muslim vote has dropped by 3 per cent, the exit poll found.
KERALA
Congress Comeback Likely
The 2026 assembly elections in Kerala – following the 2021 upset – is being seen as huge challenge for the Pinarayi Vijayan government. In 2021, when the Left-led government broke records to win a consecutive second term, the Left Democratic Front had won 99 of the state’s 149 seats and the Congress-led United Democratic Front 41 seats. This time, the wait is to see if they would score a hat-trick in face of anti-incumbency that has accumulated for a decade.
The Axis My India exit polls for Kerala’s 140 seats show the LDF coming to power with anything between 78 and 90 seats with a 44 per cent vote share — up 5 per cent from 2021. The LDF could get between 49 and 62 seats with 39 per cent seat share, down by 6 per cent.
The NDA could also open account in the state with up to three seats and 14 per cent vote share.
Pinarayi Vijayan though, remains the most favourite Chief Minister, with 33 per cent people voting for him. VD Satheesan is a distant second with 21 per cent votes.
Health warning: Exit polls do not always get it right.
For this exit poll, the pollsters had interviewed 24,419 people across the southern state’s 140 constituencies. Of them, 59 per cent were men and 41 per cent women — the majority of them being Muslims (26 per cent) Ezhava (23 per cent), Christians (19 per cent), Nair (13 per cent) and the rest Hindus and others. 39 per cent people had voted for a change — hence the move towards UDF.
More than half (52 per cent) were from rural areas and 48 per cent from urban areas. Age-wise, the maximum voters (23 per cent) were senior citizens, only two per cent were first time voters. The rest belonged to the 20 to 60 age group.
In terms of profession, it was a mix of people in private service (18 per cent) labourers (14 per cent), farmers (15 per cent), government service (3 per cent) and home-makers (26 per cent). The maximum number had passed their Class 10 and Class 12 board exams (53 per cent), 19 per cent were graduates and five per cent had done their post-graduation. Five per cent had not gone to school and 12 per cent had studied till Class 9.
The UDF, though, had been a favourite with all sections, with a majority giving it their mandate.
PUDUCHERRY
Sweep For NDA
The NDA is expected to retain the Union Territory of Puducherry with a sweeping mandate, the Axis My India Polls have found. The bloc, which has the BJP and the AIADMK is likely to win 16 to 20 of the 30 assembly seats. But it is the regional partner, Chief Minister N Rangaswamy’s AINRC (All India N.R. Congress) that will corner the big chunk — 10 to 12 seats.
The Congress-DMK combine may get 6 to 8 seats, the exit polls found, with the Congress alone getting six seats.
Actor Vijay’s TVK, which many expected to play kingmaker in a divided house, could get 2 to 4 seats.
The NDA vote share could be around 40 per cent and that of the Congress-DMK combine 30 per cent. The TVK could get 17 per cent of the votes.
The exit polls, though, do not always get it right.
For this poll, 58 per cent men and 42 per cent women were interviewed, 68 per cent of them were from rural and 32 per cent urban areas.
The exit poll showed that 41 per cent of men and 39 per cent women had voted for the NDA — a four per cent downward swing. the Congress-DMK voteshare is also down by 8 per cent, with 31 per cent men and 29 per cent women voting for the alliance.
The slack has been taken up by Vijay’s TVK, which is likely to corner 14 per cent votes from men and 20 per cent from women.
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