During a press briefing in the White House earlier this month, US President Donald Trump jokingly said that if a deal with Iran was reached, he would take full credit. If not, Trump added, “If it [the deal] doesn’t happen, I am blaming JD Vance”.
Weeks later now, as JD Vance landed back home empty-handed, after the talks in Islamabad yielded no results, he might find himself in the hot seat.
US President Donald Trumpwho has a tendency to change goalposts and has blamed his colleagues (like he blamed War Secretary Pete Hegseth), could accuse JD Vance of not securing him a deal with Iran.
And not making Vance’s job any easier is Trump’s constant oscillation with Iran. He has gone from accepting Iran’s 10-point proposal, to announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuzafter the talks in Islamabad collapsed. Will Trump throw Vance under the bus for the failed talks in Pakistan?
Negotiating with Iran’s regime, which Trump says is new, is no easy task. The last major US-Iran agreement was the 2015 nuclear deal, which took the Barack Obama administration nearly 20 months to finalise. Trump withdrew the US from the agreement in 2018. Many Iranian moderates who supported that deal, such as Ali Larijani, were later killed in US and Israeli strikes. In their place stands what the Israeli Defence Forces describes as a far more hardline regimeled by Supreme Leader Mojitaba Khamenei. Having seen his family getting killed, Khamenei Junior would have no love (and little trust) lost for Washington.
To hold talks with the Iranian delegation, Tump did not send a seasoned diplomat with decades of experience, but chose Vance, who was the most vocal opponent within the administration of initiating a war with Iran, the New York Times reported.
For Trump, ending the war he started tops his to-do list. But now his goals, including that of regime change, remain unmet.
Despite the significant damage inflicted on Iran’s military, Tehran continues to impose costs on the US. Most visible is the higher fuel prices in the US. The war in the Middle East has also divided Trump’s MAGA base, many of whom were promised an end to US involvement in foreign wars.
Compounding the pressure are the upcoming November midterms, which Democrats are expected to contest aggressively in hopes of regaining control of Congress. Should the Democrats gain a majority in the House and Senate, it is likely they would start pushing for Trump to be impeached like they did in his first term. Talk about deja vu.
Iran’s leadership, however, appears in no rush to concede. The regime under Khamenei has presented maximalist demands, including the right to impose tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and full sanctions relief without dismantling its nuclear program. During the talks in Islamabad, the Iranian side rejected key US proposals presented by Vance, such as a commitment to abandon nuclear weapons development.
Now, Vance, who could not clinch a deal with Iran, might have to face Trump, who is growing desperate by the day to end the war.
Vance, on the other hand, seems to be at a position of disadvantage.
VANCE TASKED WITH IRAN AMID HIS DECLINING INFLUENCE IN WASHINGTON
The stakes are high for Vance. Once seen as Trump’s likely successor, his standing in Washington has slipped, largely due to his independent streak and anti-interventionist views.
A White House official told the US news outlet, MSNOW, “Realistically, Vance has lost clout within the White House because of his dissent”.
While individuals like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth have shown unwavering loyalty towards Trump, Vance has repeatedly clashed with the President. The voice in the wilderness if you will.
Vance was sidelined from the discussions and planning of the operation targeting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Vance was also the lone dissenter when the question of striking Iran came up.
Now, he was sent to lead the Iran talks in Islamabad, which might be the toughest assignment of his career. He had to secure a deal from an adversary more patient than his own boss.
While Vance was in Islamabad on Saturday, Trump did not make his deputy’s task easier.
WILL TRUMP THROWN VANCE UNDER THE TEHRAN BUS?
Trump turned a blind eye to Israel’s continued operations in Lebanon, which violated the ceasefire, and sent mixed signals on Iranian proposals.
His position shifted from tentatively accepting elements of Iran’s 10-point plan, including a possible joint venture on Hormuz tollsto deploying US warships for demining operations in the strait.
After the talks in Islamabad yielded no results, Trump announced a blockade of ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz.
And if that wasn’t bad enough, Trump himself indicated his disinterest in the negotiations despite his desire to exit the Iran war.
“Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me. The reason is because we’ve won. We’re in very deep negotiations with Iran. We win regardless. We’ve defeated them militarily,” Trump told reporters on Saturday.
While Trump has signalled that failure to deliver a deal with Iran would rest with Vance, he has also jokingly blamed Pete Hegseth for starting the war. While the White House downplayed the latter as “humour”, one can not help but ask if Trump would throw Vance under the bus? After all, it’s Trump.
In his second term, Trump has so far removed even his most loyal acolytes when results fell short.
Last month, he fired Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem after policy backlash, and Attorney General Pam Bondi over her “disastrous handling” of the release of Epstein files.
Others, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, FBI Head Kash Patel, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard are also reportedly on the proverbial chopping block.
As the VP, Vance cannot be easily fired. However, a report in UK-based The Telegraph noted that Trump could effectively derail Vance’s future presidential ambitions within the Republican Party by pinning blame for the Iran war on him, an accusation his base would likely accept.
The coming weeks would test whether Vance can deliver a face-saving exit to Trump. It would also tell if this high-stakes assignment in Islamabad becomes the moment Vance’s trajectory is permanently altered.
– Ends
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