The ongoing war in the Middle East is driving up the cost of food around the world, and the United Nations says it could get significantly worse if the conflict drags on.
Global food prices climbed in March to their highest level since September last year, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday, warning that prices could rise further if the Middle East conflict that pushed up energy prices continues.
It is the second month in a row that prices have risen, sign that pressure on global food markets is steadily building.
The FAO tracks food costs through its Food Price Index, which works like a Sensex for groceries, it monitors international prices of five key food groups: cereals (wheat, rice, corn), meat, dairy, vegetable oils, and sugar. The index rose 2.4% from its revised February level, reaching 128.5 points in March.
The biggest jump came from sugar. Sugar prices leapt 7.2% in March to their highest since October 2025, as higher crude oil prices, themselves a consequence of the Middle East conflict, drove expectations that Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, would divert more sugarcane into producing ethanol, a fuel additive, rather than food. When oil gets expensive, Brazilian producers find it more profitable to make fuel, which tightens global sugar supply and pushes prices up.
Meat prices also rose 1.0%, led by higher pig meat prices in the European Union and bovine meat prices in Brazil.
The FAO’s chief economist sounded a clear alarm about what lies ahead. “Price rises since the conflict began have been modest, driven mainly by higher oil prices and cushioned by ample global cereal supplies,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero. But he warned that if the conflict lasts over 40 days and input costs remain high, farmers may reduce inputs, plant less, or switch to less fertiliser-intensive crops.
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“Those choices will hit future yields and shape our food supply and commodity prices for the rest of this year and all of the next,” he added.
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