Bihar Exit Poll Results 2025: The political winds in Bihar appear to favour the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), though not without a contest that could go down to the wire. Exit polls released on November 12, including those by Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, project the BJP-led alliance as the frontrunner in the 243-member assembly, with Mahagathbandhan (MGB) trailing close behind.
According to Axis My India, the NDA is likely to win between 121 and 141 seats, while the MGB is expected to bag 98 to 118. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor is projected to win up to two seats. Today’s Chanakya forecasts an even more decisive edge for the BJP, predicting 160 seats for the saffron party, 77 for the RJD and six for others.
Post 10 of 17 – Bihar – Exit Poll – Preferred CM#BiharElections2025#BiharElections#ExitPoll#AxisMyIndia@PradeepGuptaAMI pic.twitter.com/x0unMekmjx
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 12, 2025
Post 17 of 17 – Bihar – Exit Poll – Overall Seat Share (243 Seats) & Vote Share (%)#BiharElections2025#BiharElections#ExitPoll#AxisMyIndia@PradeepGuptaAMI pic.twitter.com/pSd7aYzO3w
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 12, 2025
Post 3 of 17 – Bihar – Exit Poll – Sub-Caste-wise (1 of 2) – Vote Share (%)#BiharElections2025#BiharElections#ExitPoll#AxisMyIndia@PradeepGuptaAMI pic.twitter.com/DWwmiSbC91
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 12, 2025
#TCAnalysis#BiharElection2025
Bihar 2025
Seat Projection
BJP+ 160 ± 12 Seats
RJD+ 77 ± 12 Seats
Others 6 ± 3 Seats#TodaysChanakyaAnalysis
— Today’s Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 12, 2025
Across nine exit polls released on November 11, the consensus estimate places the NDA’s tally at around 147 seats, with the opposition MGB at 90. The Jan Suraaj Party is expected to mark its presence with one seat, while smaller parties could together bag around five. The final results will be declared on November 14.
Pollsters, however, caution that the race remains finely balanced. Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta described it as “a close election”, pointing to the unpredictable performance of Jan Suraaj Party, which has polled around 4% vote share.
He added that nearly 75% of Kishor’s votes appear to have come from traditional NDA supporters, a factor that could subtly alter seat dynamics.
Analysts say that new political entrants are often undersampled in opinion surveys, and if Kishor’s support crosses even 8 to 10%, the equation could shift dramatically.
How Accurate Were Bihar’s 2020 Exit Polls?
In the 2020 assembly elections, exit polls had largely forecast a wave in favour of Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), predicting heavy losses for the NDA. But the final results told a different story. The NDA managed 125 seats, narrowly surpassing the majority mark of 122, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110.
The RJD still emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, followed closely by the BJP with 74.
Women Take The Lead
Beyond numbers and forecasts, this election has made history in a different way. Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout (66.91%). And for the first time, women voters outnumbered men at the ballot box.
The Election Commission data shows 71.6% of women voted, nearly 9 percentage points higher than the 62.8% turnout among men (the widest gender gap in the state’s electoral history).
In absolute terms, that means 2.52 crore women cast their votes compared to 2.47 crore men, a difference of roughly 5 lakh voters.
This milestone comes despite the Election Commission’s earlier Special Intensive Revision of the electoral rolls, which had seen more female deletions than male. Post-revision, Bihar had 3.93 crore male electors and 3.51 crore female electors, leaving a gap of over 42 lakh.
The unprecedented female turnout now signals a shift in Bihar’s political participation, one that could reshape the final outcome.
As the countdown to November 14 continues, the state stands at a crossroads, a close electoral fight, a rising new player and a decisive female vote that may hold the key to who rules Bihar next.
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