Retail inflation may fall below 1%: The index of 20 essential commodities fell by 3.6% for the sixth month in October; Vegetables, pulses, rice become cheaper by 51%

Inflation is continuously decreasing in the country. In October, vegetables became cheaper by 51%, pulses by 29% and rice by 1.2%. Bank of Baroda estimates that due to this, retail inflation may be only 0.4-0.6% in October, which was 1.5% in September. Last month, the arrival of vegetables in the markets increased by 30%. This trend continues in November also.

The BOB Essential Commodities Index has fallen for the sixth consecutive month. In October it came down by 3.60% compared to a year ago. The index also declined by 3.80% in the first six days of November. This is an index of 20 essential commodities like vegetables, pulses, oil, grains. Last month, the prices of tomato, onion and potato (top) decreased the most.

Bank of Baroda economist Aditi Gupta said, ‘Inflation is continuously decreasing due to good harvest in the country, falling prices of agricultural commodities like rice across the world and reduction in GST rates. We believe that retail inflation will remain low in the coming months also.

Changes in food prices compared to 2024

Note: Contrary to the general trend, groundnut oil became cheaper by 2.5% in October and by 4.4% in the first week of November.

Source: Bank of Baroda Research

Vegetables: Onion the cheapest after 2020

According to the report, onion prices declined by 51%, tomato prices by 40% and potato prices by 31% in October. Onion prices have declined the most since December 2020. New potatoes will arrive from this month. Although new potatoes are expensive in the beginning.

Grain: Prices of rice decreased continuously since April, prices of flour increased

The prices of rice have been decreasing every month since April this year. Prices also fell 1.2% in October. On the other hand, the prices of flour are increasing slightly every month. Flour became costlier by about 2% in October.

Pulses: Prices of arhar dal decreased the most in 8 years

In October, the prices of pulses decreased the most in 8 years. Arhar dal became cheaper by 29%, which is the biggest fall after January-18. Whereas the inflation of edible oil-mustard oil remained at 16%, soya oil at 8%, and sunflower oil at 17%. These had become costlier by 31% in September.