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Sources said the conflict has caused significant displacement and forced deportation of Afghans between 2022 and 2024, inciting anger and frustration among many families
An armed Taliban security personnel stands guard near the closed gate of the zero point border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan at Spin Boldak district in Kandahar province on October 12. (Image: AFP)
The ongoing conflict between the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Pakistani military is not entirely unexpected as much resentment has been brewing along the Durand Line for some time, sources told News18.
The Pakistani military said at least 23 of its troops and more than 200 Taliban fighters were killed in overnight border clashes on October 11 and 12. The Taliban, meanwhile, claimed that 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed in its retaliatory operations.
Tensions have escalated between Pakistan and Afghanistan amid mutual accusations of cross-border aggression as Taliban leader Amir Khan Muttaqi visits India in the capacity of Afghanistan’s foreign minister.
According to top diplomatic sources, the conflict has caused significant displacement and the forced deportation of thousands of Afghans from Pakistan to Afghanistan between 2022 and 2024, inciting anger and frustration among many families. The establishment of numerous new border checkpoints has led to daily harassment and humiliation, the sources said.
The sources said pro-Pashtun sentiment has surfaced although the level of tribal and Pashtun support for the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is debatable. It is, however, clear that it serves as a fifth column for the Afghan Taliban, they said.
The TTP has an active force of 3,000 to 5,000 fighters more skilled in guerrilla warfare than the Pakistani army. Militarily, the Afghans control the strategic heights in Nangarhar, Kunar, and Waziristan, as well as in Paktia and Khost.
The sources said if the conflict is prolonged, Pakistani forces may gain the upper hand due to their superior conventional military strength, better-trained soldiers, and advanced weaponry. Afghan forces remain heavily reliant on Soviet-era AKs and mortars, along with some weapons left behind by the withdrawing American forces, they said. The Afghans also suffer from a lack of ammunition reserves and major external weapon suppliers, having relied on Pakistan for years, they added.
They said Pakistan might resort to more airstrikes and artillery shelling, which could lead to significant civilian casualties and increased resentment even within the country – particularly among tribes having an affinity to Afghanistan. Recent Pakistani airstrikes achieved little beyond killing a few local-level TTP commanders, they added.
China’s growing investments in Afghanistan mean they will not favour a prolonged conflict, as it would impact their trade corridor to Iran and their mining projects, including copper extraction, the sources said. They might pressure Pakistan to limit its retaliation while America’s renewed interest in Bagram airbase might also lead them to advise restraint, they said.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INDIA?
The sources said as the timing of the latest clashes coincide with Muttaqi’s visit to India, this will likely heighten tensions for Pakistan, potentially resulting in increased terrorist activities in Kashmir.
They said Afghanistan at present holds a strategic advantage, but a prolonged military conflict with Pakistan would be detrimental. Nonetheless, a significant Pakistani retaliation is imminent as army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir cannot afford to appear weak domestically, they added.
Field Marshal Munir will likely accuse India of supporting the Afghan Taliban and TTP, and take these allegations to Washington and President Donald Trump, they said. While New Delhi may not make open statements, it will continue to engage with the Taliban through back channels and agencies, they added.
The sources further said the external agency re-established links with the Taliban after they came to power in 2021, enabling the ministry of external affairs (MEA) to start a technical mission.
“We will probably continue to provide diplomatic and humanitarian support, increase visa allocations to Afghans, resume flights to Kabul, and enhance medical and educational assistance. If Pakistan conducts large-scale attacks inside Afghanistan, we will condemn it and express solidarity with the Afghans and Pashtuns. This stance will resonate within Pakistan as well, given the Pashtuns’ grievances with the Punjabis,” the diplomatic sources told News18.
WHAT ARE THE LATEST PAK-AFGHAN CLASHES?
The Pakistani army in a statement said on the intervening night of October 11 and 12, Afghan Taliban and TTP “launched an unprovoked attack on Pakistan, along the Pak-Afghan border”.
The statement comes amid Pakistan seizing 19 Afghan military posts and “terrorist hideouts” in response to what it termed “unprovoked” attacks by Afghan forces in the border areas, while Kabul claimed that 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 30 others injured during the retaliatory operations.
On the overnight clashes, Pakistan said the “cowardly action” involving cross-border fire and a few physical raids was aimed at destabilising the frontier areas to facilitate terrorism, furthering the “nefarious designs” of the terrorists. Troops “repelled the assault decisively all along the border and inflicted heavy casualties on Taliban forces and affiliated Khwarjis (TTP terrorists), it said.
It said the security forces carried out precision strikes and physical raids on Taliban camps, posts, and terrorist training facilities inside Afghan territory.
“The infra-structural damages to Taliban posts, camps, headquarters and support networks of terrorists are extensive, all along the border and range from tactical to operational depth,” the statement said.
The Pakistani army maintained that its forces took “all possible measures” to avoid civilian casualties, while vowing to continue defending the country’s sovereignty. The statement warned that while Pakistan preferred constructive diplomacy and dialogue over violence and belligerence, “we will not tolerate the treacherous use of Afghan soil for terrorism against Pakistan”.
It said Pakistan will continue to exercise its right to defend its people by persistently neutralising terror targets, and urged the Taliban government to “take immediate and verifiable action” against the terrorist groups operating from Afghan soil. The statement noted that the “serious provocation” came during the visit of the Taliban Foreign Minister to India.
WHAT DID THE PAK GOVT SAY?
Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif later said there will be “no compromise” on Pakistan’s sovereignty, praising the army’s “befitting” response that destroyed “several” Afghan posts overnight.
Zardari urged the Taliban government to take concrete and verifiable action against anti-Pakistan terrorist elements operating on Afghan soil.
Sharif lauded the army’s professional prowess and decisive action under the leadership of Field Marshal Munir, warning that “every provocation will be given a befitting and effective response”.
WHAT DID AFGHANISTAN SAY?
The Taliban-led Afghanistan government’s defence ministry confirmed the attacks, saying that its forces had conducted “retaliatory and successful operations”.
“If the opposing side again violates Afghanistan’s territorial integrity, our armed forces are fully prepared to defend the nation’s borders and will deliver a strong response,” the ministry said.
Afghan forces targeted Pakistani posts at Angoor Adda, Bajaur, Kurram, Dir, and Chitral in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baramcha in Balochistan.
Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban government’s chief spokesman, said 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed and around 30 others wounded during the operations, Tolo News reported.
Mujahid said during the retaliatory operations across the Durand Line, 20 Pakistani security outposts were destroyed, and numerous weapons and military equipment were seized. He said nine Afghan soldiers were killed and 16 others were wounded in the operations, as per the report. The operation was halted at midnight following requests from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, he added.
(With agency inputs)
Group Editor, Investigations & Security Affairs, Network18
Group Editor, Investigations & Security Affairs, Network18
October 12, 2025, 8:43 PM IST
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