हरियाणा और जम्मू-कश्मीर का पोल ऑफ पोल्स: हरियाणा के 8 पोल में कांग्रेस सरकार के आसार; J&K में कांग्रेस-NC सरकार का अनुमान

Voting for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections has ended. So far, 8 exit polls of Haryana and 5 of Jammu and Kashmir have come out. Congress government seems to be formed in all 8 exit polls of Haryana. BJP is likely to be reduced to 21 seats.

In 3 of the exit polls of Jammu and Kashmir, Congress and National Conference are seen forming the government. In one, PDP is expected to become the largest party.

Voting has been completed on 90-90 seats of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. The results will be announced on October 8. To form government in these states, victory on 46 seats is required.

Exit polls of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir

Bhaskar’s 2 reporters poll

Bhaskar has also conducted reporters’ poll on the assembly elections of both the states. Among these, Congress government seems to be formed in Haryana. Hang assembly is expected in Jammu and Kashmir. Here Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP and independent MLAs can play the role of kingmakers.

2 Opinion Poll: Hung Assembly in Haryana, Congress-NC in Jammu and Kashmir

Only two agencies had conducted opinion polls before the elections. Times Now-Matris opinion poll suggests a hung assembly in Haryana. According to Lokpol Opinion Survey in Jammu and Kashmir, Congress and NC government seems to be formed.

Difference between exit poll and opinion poll Opinion poll and exit poll are election surveys. Opinion polls are conducted before elections. Its results are also released before the elections. All people are included in this. This means that it is not necessary that the voter is the one answering the survey questions. In this survey, the mood of the public is estimated on the basis of different issues.

Exit polls are conducted during elections. Its results are released after all phases of voting are over. Officials of exit poll agencies are present at the polling stations on the day of voting. After voting, they ask questions related to the elections to the voters.

A report is made on the basis of voters’ responses. The report is assessed to find out which way the voters are more inclined. After this the results are estimated.

Exit polls of last 3 assembly elections in Haryana…

Jat vote bank divided in 2019, Congress gained 17 seats There are 22.2% Jat voters in Haryana. They have influence on more than 40 out of 90 assembly seats in the state. In the 2014 assembly elections, Jats voted for BJP in large numbers. Due to this, BJP won majority with 47 seats and Congress was out of power for 10 years.

However, in 2019, Jats turned against BJP. Its effect was visible on the results. BJP came down from 47 to 40 seats. BJP formed government with JJP and 7 independent MLAs. Congress gained 17 seats. The party had won 15 seats in 2014. In 2019 this figure increased to 31.

BJP will suffer loss in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress will gain.

Close contest between BJP and Congress on the basis of Lok Sabha elections

If Congress wins, 4 faces including Hooda and Shailja will be in the race to become CM, only Saini from BJP will be the CM face.

If no one gets majority, small parties will be king makers.

• The main contest in Haryana is between BJP and Congress. However, if we look at the pattern of previous assembly elections, small parties and independents play an important role in forming the government.
• Omprakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has formed an alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The other regional party is Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). Dushyant has tied up with Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (ASP). Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is contesting all 90 seats for the first time.
• There is no possibility of anyone getting majority in the opinion poll. If this happens then the alliance of INLD-BSP and JJP-ASP can play the role of king maker. JJP had won 10 seats in the 2019 assembly elections. With their support the BJP government could be formed. Dushyant Chautala was made Deputy CM. However, the alliance broke before the elections.

2 exit polls of 2014 assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir predicted a hung assembly.

Assembly elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years. After the hung assembly in 2014, BJP and PDP formed a coalition government. The government fell after the alliance broke in 2018. After this, there was Governor’s rule in the state (as per the Jammu and Kashmir Constitution at that time) for 6 months. After this President’s rule came into force.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections were held during the President’s rule, in which the BJP returned to power at the Center with a majority. After this, on August 5, 2019, the BJP government abolished Article 370 and divided the state into two union territories (Jammu-Kashmir and Ladakh). Assembly elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years in 2024.

Congress and National Conference close to majority on the basis of 2024 Lok Sabha elections

2 faces in the race for Chief Minister in Jammu and Kashmir

If the assembly remains hung, PDP and independents will be kingmakers. In the voting held on 90 seats of Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, 908 candidates were in the fray. Of these, 365 were independents. This is the second highest number of independents in any assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir from 1967 to 2024.

PDP, which formed the government with BJP in the last assembly elections in 2014, did not contest all the 90 seats this time. In case of a hung assembly, PDP and independent MLAs can prove to be kingmakers. Engineer Rashid’s party can also play a role in forming the government.