On February 18, when US President Donald Trump was deciding whether to attack Iran, Energy Minister Chris Wright said in an interview that he was not worried that if there was a war, oil supplies from the Middle East would be affected or there would be major disruption in the oil market. Wright had said that even when Israel and America attacked Iran in June last year, the oil market was not much affected. According to him, the price of oil had increased slightly at that time, but soon it came down again. Other Trump advisers also privately held similar views. He believed that the warnings were being exaggerated and that Iran would hardly this time block the sea routes carrying oil, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. But in recent times this assessment appeared to be proved wrong. Iran threatened that it could attack oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This is the same important sea route through which all ships leaving the Persian Gulf pass. Movement of ships stopped in Hormuz Strait: After these threats from Iran, movement of commercial ships in the Gulf region has almost stopped. Because of this, oil prices had once touched $110 per barrel. The Trump administration is now busy finding ways to control the economic crisis. Due to this crisis, petrol prices have also increased in America. This incident also shows that Trump and his advisers misjudged how Iran would react to this war. Iran is considering this conflict as an existential threat. Iran’s response is more aggressive: This time Iran has responded more aggressively than the 12-day war that took place in June last year. It has launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases, cities in several Arab countries of the Middle East, and populated areas of Israel. Due to these attacks, American officials had to immediately change many plans. Embassies had to be evacuated at some places and new policies had to be worked out to control the rising prices of petrol. Trump has no plan to end the war. After this, on Tuesday, Trump administration officials informed the lawmakers behind closed doors. After this, Connecticut’s Democratic Senator Christopher Murphy wrote on social media that the administration has no plan to safely reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Even within the administration, some officials are disappointed that there appears to be no plan to end the war. However, they are avoiding saying this directly to President Trump, because Trump is repeatedly saying that the military operation has been completely successful. Trump and Defense Minister have different thinking regarding Iran. Trump sometimes talks about a very big target. As if they want a leader in Iran who will listen to America. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth do not talk like this. Pete Hegseth also said on Tuesday that America has burnt its hands in Iraq. They won’t do that in Iran. He says that the real objective is to weaken Iran’s missile power and military capability. If this is done then a way may be found to end the war. Hegseth acknowledged that the Pentagon was not fully aware of the intensity of Iran’s retaliatory attacks on its neighboring countries. However, he said that these actions of Iran may ultimately go against itself. He said that it is difficult to say that exactly such a response was expected from Iran, but there was a possibility that it could happen. According to him, these attacks by Iran show that the government there is under pressure. Trump angry over impact on oil supply Meanwhile, Trump also said that he is angry over the impact of the war on oil supply. He told Fox News that crew members of oil tankers should “show some courage” and continue passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Some military advisers had warned before the war that Iran could respond too aggressively and view a US-Israeli attack as an existential threat. But some other advisers were confident that if Iran’s top leaders were killed, their replacements would be more pragmatic and try to end the war. When Trump was told that oil prices could rise due to war, he acknowledged this possibility but did not give much importance to it, calling it a temporary problem. He asked Energy Minister Chris Wright and Finance Minister Scott Besant to prepare options to deal with possible price increases. However, the President did not say anything publicly about these options until more than 48 hours after the war began. These options included steps like providing political risk insurance by the US government and providing security to ships by the US Navy. Such escort system of the Navy has not started yet. Iran is preparing to lay sea mines. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote on social media on March 10 that the US Navy has safely passed an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. After his post, there was a stir in the oil market and investors felt that the situation was improving. But when other administration officials later said that no such escort operation had taken place, Wright had to remove the post and the market again became volatile. Efforts to resume oil supply are also becoming difficult because American intelligence agencies have received information that Iran is preparing to lay sea mines in the strait. Although the plan was still in its early stages, it worried the Trump administration. The US military said on Tuesday evening that it had targeted 16 Iranian ships near the strait that were preparing to lay mines. Concerns of politicians have increased due to increase in oil prices. Meanwhile, due to increase in oil prices, the concerns of Republican leaders in Washington have also increased. They fear it could damage their economic policies among voters ahead of the midterm elections. Mid-term elections are to be held in America in November. Trump is also saying publicly and privately that Venezuelan oil can help deal with this crisis. On Tuesday, the administration also announced a new refinery in Texas, which could help increase oil supply and prevent long-term impacts from Iran on the oil market. Some experts were also surprised at how Trump was so confident that oil supplies would continue. Because only last year, Trump launched a military campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who almost stopped the movement of ships in the Red Sea with missile and drone attacks. While announcing the attack on the Houthis in March last year, Trump had said that these attacks had caused a loss of billions of dollars to the global economy. Trump is changing his statements again and again, but after the war with Iran, Trump’s statements have not been consistent. Trump sometimes says that this war can last more than a month, and sometimes he says that it is almost over. On the other hand, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have talked about 3 objectives in recent days. 1. Destroying Iran’s missiles and its ability to launch them. 2. To eliminate missile manufacturing factories. 3. Destroying Iran’s navy. Experts believe that this may indicate that America is looking for a way to end the war soon. However, Trump warned in his press conference that if Iran tried to stop the world’s energy supply, America would take even tougher action. Matthew Pottinger, a former national security adviser in the Trump administration, said Trump may still decide to extend the war a little further. According to him, Trump does not want to have to fight another war again later. Ending the war is very important for America. Meanwhile, the need to find ways to end the war has increased because oil prices are increasing rapidly and America is using expensive weapons in large quantities. Pentagon officials told a closed door hearing in Parliament that weapons worth about $5.6 billion had been used in the first two days of the war. This figure is much higher than what was publicly reported earlier. On the other hand, Iranian officials are still showing a tough stance. They say that they will use their influence on the world’s oil supply to put pressure on America and Israel. Iran’s senior national security official Ali Larijani wrote on social media that the Strait of Hormuz will either become a path to peace and prosperity for all, or a path to defeat and sorrow for those who want war.
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ट्रम्प के पास जंग खत्म करने का कोई प्लान नहीं: ईरान की ताकत का गलत अंदाजा लगाया, तेल सप्लाई ठप होगी सोचा नहीं था
